As population surge, infrastructure investment per person barely grew over six years – Fiscal Council

Malta’s public infrastructure investment per person increased by an annual average of just 0.3% between 2019 and 2025, according to the government’s fiscal watchdog, exposing how little investment grew relative to the country’s expanding population.

The Malta Fiscal Advisory Council highlighted the figure in its assessment of the economic forecasts underpinning Budget 2027, warning of increasing demands on infrastructure and public services.

The finding challenges any assessment of investment based solely on headline spending totals. Once inflation and population growth are taken into account, the Council’s measure shows barely any average annual improvement over the period.

Its calculation uses a proxy for public infrastructure investment, covering tangible assets in public administration, defence, education, health and social work activities. These include buildings, machinery and equipment, while excluding intellectual property and other intangible assets.

The measure does not capture every category of public infrastructure. Nevertheless, the Council said it highlighted limited investment growth relative to the expanding population and the demands placed on public services.

The warning comes as government forecasts a sharp increase in capital expenditure.

Public investment is projected to rise by 40.4% in nominal terms in 2026, followed by another 27.7% in 2027, when it is expected to reach approximately €1.35 billion.

The Council questioned whether this programme could be delivered, pointing to the scale of the increases and the government’s historical tendency to overestimate investment outcomes.

Meeting the 2026 forecast would require public investment to increase by approximately 54% during the second half of the year, the Council noted.

The watchdog also stressed that spending more does not automatically deliver lasting economic improvements. Investment must be assessed against its composition, execution and ability to improve productivity.

It recommended prioritising projects that address infrastructure bottlenecks, improve efficiency and strengthen productive capacity.

The assessment raises questions about whether successive investment programmes have kept pace with Malta’s population growth, and how the government intends to show that its next spending surge will deliver better services.