Abela’s popularity slips as Ian Borg and Clyde Caruana emerge as Labour’s rising stars

Prime Minister Robert Abela, who is expected to announce his new Cabinet and team of parliamentary secretaries in the coming hours, will be closely watching the growing popularity of two of Labour’s strongest performers – Deputy Prime Minister Ian Borg and Finance Minister Clyde Caruana.

Both ministers are increasingly being viewed within Labour circles as potential successors should the party seek new leadership before the next general elections.

Despite retaining a five-seat parliamentary majority, Labour under Abela’s leadership has suffered a substantial loss of support to the Nationalist Party. Recent electoral data also indicates that the Prime Minister’s personal popularity is beginning to wane, even in districts traditionally considered Labour strongholds.

According to the latest electoral results, Abela secured an average of 69.6% of Labour’s first-count votes in the second and fifth districts, where he contested. While still a dominant result, it represents a decline from the 70.3% average he registered in the same districts during the 2022 general elections.

The figures also place him significantly behind Nationalist leader Alex Borg. The 30-year-old PN leader secured an average of 88% of first-preference votes cast for his party in the 12th and 13th districts.

Borg’s strong personal performance also contributed to a swing of more than 10 percentage points in favour of the PN in Gozo, allowing the party to emerge as the island’s most popular political force for the first time in more than a decade.

However, while Abela will undoubtedly be monitoring Borg’s growing appeal, Labour insiders suggest he may have greater reason to focus on developments within his own ranks.

Sources within the Labour Party told The Shift that although Abela remains firmly in control, there is already widespread recognition that Labour may require a new leader by 2031 if it hopes to retain power.

Among the names most frequently mentioned are Borg and Caruana.

Borg, who served as Foreign Minister and Labour’s deputy leader for parliamentary affairs before the elections, almost doubled his vote tally compared to 2022 and emerged as Labour’s second most popular candidate after Abela.

Contesting the sixth and seventh districts, Borg obtained a total of 10,108 first-preference votes, nearly twice the number he secured four years ago.

Widely regarded as an effective administrator and skilled communicator capable of attracting support beyond Labour’s traditional base, the 40-year-old politician is viewed by many party insiders as the frontrunner to succeed Abela should the Prime Minister step down during this legislature.

Caruana also registered a strong performance.

The finance minister increased his personal vote tally from 3,015 first-preference votes in 2022 to 5,775 in 2026, despite contesting the second district, where Abela traditionally attracts a large share of Labour votes as party leader.

Caruana’s reputation as a serious and outspoken policymaker continues to resonate with a significant segment of Labour supporters. Nevertheless, although he is frequently mentioned as a potential leadership contender, some party officials believe he lacks the charisma and political instincts needed to lead a national electoral campaign.

Others remain critical of his role in shaping Malta’s economic and demographic policies, particularly the rapid population growth associated with Labour’s economic model.

For now, Abela remains Labour’s undisputed leader.

Yet with electoral support gradually eroding and alternative leadership options gaining momentum, the question increasingly being asked within Labour circles is not whether a succession debate will begin, but when.