Marmara and Times of Malta miss the mark again as trust in election surveys declines

For the second major election in as many years, Labour-linked pollster Vincent Marmara has found himself explaining why voters delivered a result significantly different from the one he predicted.

The latest polling miss comes as scrutiny continues to grow over the hundreds of thousands of euros in government contracts and direct orders awarded to Marmara and his company, Sagalytics Ltd, over the past decade, even as his surveys remain a prominent feature of Labour’s political messaging.

In the final week of the 2026 general election campaign, Marmara projected a Labour victory of around 30,000 votes. The Times of Malta poll, conducted by Esprimi, predicted an even wider gap of 33,600 votes, giving the impression of another Labour landslide.

When the votes were counted, Labour secured approximately 158,000 votes, or 52%, while the Nationalist Party obtained around 137,000 votes, equivalent to 45%. The final gap stood at roughly 22,000 votes, substantially narrower than both surveys had suggested.

Only MaltaToday’s poll came close to the final result, forecasting a difference of around 18,000 votes.

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While Marmara was quick to defend his latest failure,  pointing out that surveys are estimates rather than forecasts, the discrepancy is difficult to ignore.

In Malta’s electoral context, a few percentage points translate into thousands of votes and can significantly influence perceptions of political momentum during an election campaign.

The latest miss follows another disappointing performance during the 2024 European Parliament and local council elections, when polling also failed to fully capture the extent of voter dissatisfaction with the government.

In 2024, Labour suffered one of its weakest electoral performances in years, yet the scale of that setback was not adequately reflected in pre-election surveys.

The fact that significant polling errors have now emerged across successive electoral contests is likely to intensify scrutiny of the methodologies being used and the assumptions underpinning them, while further undermining the credibility of those producing and publishing them.

For years, Marmara’s surveys have occupied a unique place within Malta’s political landscape.

Political observers who spoke to The Shift said that, beyond measuring public opinion, Marmara’s surveys have frequently been used by Labour and Labour-friendly media outlets to reinforce narratives of political dominance and electoral strength.

Polling does not simply reflect political reality; it can also influence it, they insist.

Observers noted that repeated surveys suggesting a comfortable lead can boost morale among party supporters, strengthen the perception that victory is inevitable and help shape the wider political conversation.

Political scientists have long debated the so-called “bandwagon effect”, whereby some voters may be influenced by perceptions of which side is winning, while activists, donors and campaigners often draw confidence from polling that places their party comfortably ahead.

Against that backdrop, the fact that the final result proved substantially tighter than the picture painted by most major surveys raises legitimate questions about the role such polls play in Malta’s political discourse.

For months, polling suggested Labour remained comfortably ahead despite a series of controversies, corruption scandals and growing criticism of the government. The election result told a more complicated story.

Although Labour secured a fourth consecutive term in office, its parliamentary majority was reduced from nine seats to five. The gap between the two major parties narrowed from 39,000 votes in 2022 to 22,000 votes in 2026, while the opposition registered a swing of almost six percentage points in its favour.

That shift was repeatedly missed by both Marmara and the Times of Malta poll, dealing a further blow to their reliability and credibility.

Questions are likely to be particularly acute in Marmara’s case given his longstanding financial relationship with government entities.

Over the past decade, Marmara and his company have received hundreds of thousands of euros in public contracts, retainers and direct orders from government ministries, agencies and authorities. Recent Government Gazette publications show that the flow of taxpayer-funded assignments continues, with several direct orders awarded in recent months alone.

While there is no evidence that these government-funded assignments influenced the outcome of his surveys, the relationship creates an unavoidable perception problem.

Many question how a pollster whose business survives on a steady stream of public contracts can realistically be viewed as independent when his surveys are simultaneously being used by Labour to project electoral strength, boost supporter morale and shape political narratives ahead of elections.

2026 elections: district overview

As can be seen in the infographics below, the Labour Party dominated the largest number of Malta’s electoral districts, securing districts 1 – 7 with a convincing but reduced majority in each one.

The Nationalist Party obtained strong results in districts 8 – 13, showing how these general elections effectively cemented both major parties’ presence in their traditional strongholds.

Smaller parties like ADPD and Momentum failed to make a dent in the enduring popularity of the Labour Party and the Nationalist Party.

Their collective tally of 4,700 (Momentum) and 4,000 (ADPD) votes amounts to just 3% of the total number of valid votes cast in the elections.