Marmara is back… to direct orders

After several weeks of maintaining a relatively low public profile following criticism of his election surveys and their performance in the recent general elections, Labour pollster Vincent Marmara has resurfaced on the government’s direct orders register with yet another public contract.

According to the Government Gazette, the Occupational Health and Safety Authority (OHSA) is the latest government entity to award Marmara a direct order, this time worth €8,500 for the collection of data on “psychological risk factors” affecting the workplace.

The new engagement comes shortly after another electoral campaign during which Marmara’s surveys featured prominently in political debate. Following the election result, the University Professor faced harsh criticism over the lack of accuracy of his projections, after Labour’s final victory margin proved significantly smaller than that forecast in his pre-election polls.

The criticism echoed concerns raised after the 2024 European Parliament elections, when Marmara’s polling also came under fire for overstating Labour’s electoral strength.

For many, the latest election represented a second consecutive major electoral contest in which the Marmara’s projections failed to capture the final result, further denting his reputation.

Marmara’s surveys have long occupied a central place in Labour’s political messaging during election campaigns with opposition parties, and critics arguing that the repeated publication of surveys showing commanding Labour leads was part of a strategy contributing to a bandwagon effect, creating a false perception of electoral inevitability to influence voter behaviour, campaign momentum and public expectations.

The debate has intensified following the polling inaccuracies recorded by Marmara in both the 2024 European Parliament election and the recent general elections.

According to the Government Gazette, the latest direct order concerns the collection of data on psychosocial risks at work. It remains unclear what specific expertise qualified Marmara for the latest direct contract, given that he is primarily known for his work in statistics, survey research and political polling rather than occupational psychology or mental health.

OHSA falls under the responsibility of Minister Jonathan Attard.

The latest contract forms part of a much wider pattern of direct orders awarded to Marmara and companies associated with him, mostly Sagalytics.

Since Labour came to power in 2013, Marmara’s commercial interests have received a steady stream of direct orders and government-funded assignments from ministries, authorities and public entities.

It is not known who pays for Marmara’s private work for Labour and its politicians.