Gamblers livid at Vince Marmara as surveys off the mark

Labour’s pollster Vince Marmara made some very unhappy today as gamblers who tried to make a quick buck through illegal bets blame him for their financial and unexpected losses.

Sources at the notorious bars in Hamrun, where most of the illegal election bets traditionally occur every time the island goes to the polls, said that no one was expecting the loss of votes the Labour Party experienced. Public surveys got it wrong.

“Gamblers were betting their money on whether the PL would win with a 20,000 to 40,000 margin. No bets were placed for less. The surveys, particularly Marmara’s, were completely wrong,” a veteran punter said.

Another asked how everyone got it so wrong. “I have won many election bets in the past. But the electorate is changing, and this time around, no one seems to have smelt Labour’s disastrous result. People indeed seemed disillusioned, but not this magnitude,” he said while counting his losses.

Vincent Marmara, Labour’s chief pollster, has been conducting such surveys for the past decade. This time around, his results were entirely off the mark.

No one knows who finances his surveys. But Marmara receives many government direct orders during the year.

While the island is still awaiting the official first count vote result, it is a given that the PN managed to fill more than half the gap with Labour when it comes to the number of votes cast.

While conservative estimates show that the difference between the PL and the PN will be less than 15,000 votes, compared to more than 42,000 in the 2019 MEP elections, Marmara, just a few days ago, predicted a difference of over 27,000 votes, or a staggering 10.8% gap.

The Times of Malta survey was also off the mark. According to its latest survey, published on 2 June, it predicted a gap of 30,500 votes for Labour and a 10.4% gap on a lower turnout than the one of Marmara.

The closest, although still far off the mark, was Malta Today’s survey, conducted by Kurt Sansone. According to their latest scientific poll, published only last Thursday, Malta Today predicted a gap for Labour of over 24,00 votes, still a far cry from reality.

It is as yet unclear how all those who conducted these surveys got it so wrong. While those conducting the surveys laid the blame on undecided voters,  Opposition Leader Bernard Grech said the survey that mattered was the people’s vote.

Prime Minister Robert Abela said he “accepted the public’s message” with humility.