The latest survey shows Labour’s dominance has ended. The myth of Labour’s invincibility has collapsed.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Nationalist Party would win by 12,000 votes. And that changes everything.

Labour’s ONE TV was so shocked by the result it couldn’t bear to report it.  Its comical headline read, ‘Increased Trust in the Prime Minister and a Different Gap between the Parties”.

A different gap? ONE cannot tell its viewers that Labour lost 45,035 votes in just two years.  The PN gained 6,138.  That’s not just a “different gap” but a whopping smack in the face.

Labour’s 39,000-vote advantage in 2022 was whittled down to just 8,500 in June 2024. Now, just weeks later, Labour has squandered its lead completely.

It’s 11,699 votes behind PN. Labour retains just 69% of its 2022 voters. Six per cent would now vote PN, something that was almost unthinkable. Since June the Opposition gained 20,000 votes.

What gives the country hope is that for the first time in a long while, young voters (16-35-year-olds) have tired of Labour.   PN leads among all age groups except the elderly (65+) – and only by a whisker (42.6% vs 42.1%).

Malta Today came up with every excuse for Labour’s dismal showing: There was a party conference, new deputy leaders, and a turbulent summer for Labour.

The numbers will trigger an avalanche.  Those who thought Labour was too far in the lead to vote against it now know otherwise. Labour knows what follows.

Those opportunists who switched to Labour because it guaranteed victory now have buyer’s remorse. They’re now silently deserting Labour, in droves.  Those who were so keen to be seen at Labour’s events and photographed with the Leader are shying away.

Labour knows that those who’ve been pumping tens of thousands of euro into its war chest will be hedging their bets now.  They might not pull back their funding entirely, knowing they’ll be punished harshly for it, but they will be secretly trying to ingratiate themselves with the party’s adversaries.

As the prospect of a Labour defeat grows, that haemorrhage of voters will turn into a deluge.

There’s another category of people who’ll start to sweat under the collar. Those who abused their positions or allowed for abuse to go unchecked will be getting worried. Those who failed their duty to the state out of misguided loyalty to the party or its ministers know the time of reckoning is approaching.

Those who turned a blind eye while those who objected or dissented were victimised know they have much to answer for. The shocking story of how Joseph Cuschieri abusively drove out MFSA COO Reuben Fenech is emblematic of how many of Labour’s political appointees behave.

They felt emboldened to arbitrarily sack any person of integrity who stood up to their abuses.  Cuschieri cost the state another €414,000 on top of millions more from his previous decisions. The state should recoup that money – any serious administration would do everything in its power to do so.

People like Cuschieri know the law may finally catch up with them. They know that if the wheels of justice start to turn they will be crushed under their weight. Those who used their political appointments to prosper illictly or enabled others to do so should have nowhere to hide and nobody to defend them. They should be held accountable.

Labour is at a crossroads. It could steam ahead with its siege mentality, playing the underdog while buying victory through cronyism and nepotism. It could continue to pile up the national debt while squandering hundreds of millions in unnecessary direct contracts and fake jobs.

It could pursue its strategy of persecution and intimidation of critics and adversaries, weaponising the institutions to punish those who expose its abuses.  It could bolster its party media to demonise and harass the free press and opposition figures. It could double down with its secrecy, persistent refusal of Freedom of Information requests, and failure to answer basic questions.

Or it could change course and moderate its hostile rhetoric.  It could shift to the middle ground and try to regain the trust of those tens of thousands of voters who abandoned it by behaving honestly and with integrity and by truly pursuing the national interest rather than the financial interests of its oligarchy.

The problem is the Labour Leader’s high poll ratings embolden him and weaken those in his party pushing a more reasonable moderate approach. We know which path Robert Abela will choose – his default is not reasonable compromise, it’s not democracy. It’s aggressive hostility and repression.

Labour’s leaders have always had overwhelming support among the base – whether it was Mintoff, Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici, Alfred Sant, Joseph Muscat or Robert Abela.  The demography of Labour’s support explains that adulation. Labour enjoys over 61.3% support among primary educated.  Among tertiary educated, Labour’s support plummets to 18.6%.

The former favour the strongman leader who cannot be questioned, cannot be challenged and who is always right. That’s why Labour marched to another glorious defeat with Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici in 1992. It suffered two ignominious defeats in 2003 and 2008 by keeping Alfred Sant at the helm.

Labour is lumped with Robert Abela because his ratings will always be high. And that can only mean one thing – certain catastrophe.